The growth of the healthcare sector in the economy is not matched by an increase in health

Healthcare is a big industry in the US. Really big. Per a recent NY Times article, it is the largest employer in the nation, its growth demonstrated by this graphic:

The plummeting in the number of manufacturing jobs over the last few decades (it being more profitable to make things in poorer countries thanks to lower wages) and the more gradual but steady fall in retail jobs as a result of the on-line economy leading to the closure of “brick and mortar” stores, have been big contributors to this phenomenon, but the growth in the number of health care jobs is also undeniable. Indeed, as seen in the graphic below, in 1990 healthcare was the largest employer in no state, but in 2024 it is the largest in all but 11! This is an incredible change, and has incredible implications for the US economy and for the health of Americans. Unfortunately, they are not entirely positive.

While growth in employment may be good for the economy overall, and helps those who have jobs in that sector, this is only true to the extent that they are good jobs, or at least are jobs that employ people who would otherwise be unemployed. Not all healthcare jobs are well-paying, and if they are relatively poor paying jobs that have replaced better paying jobs in manufacturing, the folks who have them are not better off. It is not necessarily good for the individual who is paying for their healthcare, even when they are employed in the healthcare industry (many “lower end” jobs in this industry do not come with good, or even any, health insurance). The cost of insurance has gone way up, as has the proportion of it that is borne by the individual or household. As a third graphic from this article shows, the growth in the percentage of household expenditures that is for healthcare has also been phenomenal, now being larger than the portion spent on groceries or housing.

One big issue is that not all of these healthcare jobs are actually providing healthcare to people. They include those who do, nurses and doctors and other clinical providers, and also those providing home care services, who are often at the lowest end of both the salary and benefit scale. Many of these workers are on both Medicaid and food stamps, an indictment of the healthcare industry and a rebuttal to those (mostly Republican) politicians who justify cutting those programs by saying that they are abused by able-bodied adults who should “get a job”. In addition to clinical providers, “healthcare” jobs also include multiple levels of administrators and managers in healthcare and in the insurance industry. Indeed, many work in the artificial industry created by the conflict between the two about whether and how much insurance should pay for care, both sides engaged in an essentially socially non-productive struggle.  

The growth in administrative personnel – a hold-all term for those not involved in clinical activities – is illustrated by the following chart, which looks at the increase in physicians compared to administrators/managers over time. What we see represents a towering infrastructure mainly aimed at making money, either for healthcare institutions or insurers. Even though physicians are only one piece of the clinical pie, it is a pretty impressive contrast. Nurses, and the demand for nurses, has grown more dramatically (if not as fast as that of administrators). This is in part because the number of physicians hasn’t grown as fast as the demand for clinical services, and some services previously provided by physicians are now done by nurses, including Advance Practice Registered Nurses (APRNs) such as Nurse Practitioners, Nurse Midwives, Nurse Anesthetists, and other Clinical Nurse Specialists. There are currently about 4 million nurses, with about ¾ being RNs (not counting APRNs), and 1 million physicians (State of the US Healthcare Workforce, Health Resources and Services Administration, November 2024, downloaded from https://bhw.hrsa.gov). There is some question about the degree to which the number of “primary care” physicians is all doctors who are actually practicing primary care, especially among general internists, many of whom are hospitalists (40% or greater).

 

So, we have both an amazing growth in the number of healthcare jobs and in the portion of a regular household budget that is spent on healthcare (including direct payments, insurance premiums, copays, coinsurance, deductibles). Obviously these are related phenomena; after all the growth in the number of jobs, as well as in the number of buildings dedicated to healthcare (see Ron Shansky and Healthcare in the US: We need more than buildings, May 10, 2025) has to be paid for somehow. The “somehow” is money spent on healthcare services, which is paid by people either directly or through their insurance premiums and other payments. While it is in large part these buildings, and these jobs, that have led many to say that the US has the “best healthcare system in the world”, it is mostly the biggest.

The argument that we have the best healthcare system would be bolstered by demonstrating that, as a result of, or even coincidentally with, this enormous physical and human resources infrastructure, the health of the American people was great, or even had significantly improved. Sadly, it has not, and doesn’t appear to be headed in that direction. Certainly, many people get great health care, particularly those who are wealthier, well-insured, and live in major metropolitan areas. But many don’t, even including people in all those groups. The overall health status of the American people not only remains lower than that of all comparable (ie, wealthy) countries, and even many “middle income” (poor by US standards) countries, but the gap is increasing, not decreasing. I included a few graphs from The Commonwealth Fund’s comparative international ranking, Mirror Mirror on the Wall, in the blog cited above, including one showing how far ahead we are in health care spending, but will reproduce here the one showing 2024 health system performance rankings.

New changes in health financing resulting from the Trump-GOP “One Beautiful Bill” will have major negative consequences, making these circumstances worse, much of which is documented in How to Wreck the Nation’s Health, by the Numbers, an excellent and thorough essay in the NY Times by long-time health services researcher Dr. Steven H. Woolf. Eleven million people will lose Medicaid coverage, and the vast majority will not be able-bodied adults who are voluntarily unemployed. Most Medicaid beneficiaries are children and their mothers. Most Medicaid dollars are spent on people in nursing homes (both those that started out low-income and those that “spent down” because of the cost of long-term care and got poor enough to qualify).  A recent Commonwealth Fund study estimates significant job loss and negative impact on the economy from this bill,  

In 2029, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP would cause state gross domestic products to fall by $154 billion, 18 percent more than the $131 billion they would save the federal government. The cuts would result in the loss of 1.22 million jobs nationwide, equivalent to a 0.8-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. States with higher rates of poverty would likely be harmed more. State and local tax revenues would fall by $12 billion.

Rural areas would be particularly affected, especially in health care. Unlike the major urban medical centers I described earlier, rural hospitals often operate at the margins of financial viability. Because rural populations are poorer, older, and sicker, they are more dependent upon Medicare and Medicaid as payers. Many have closed in the last several years, and many more are likely to as a result of the coming cuts, as documented by the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research in North Carolina and reported in KFF Health News and the University of Arizona Center for Rural Health.

The degree to which this new law will negatively impact the most vulnerable people in our nation – the poor, rural, children, seniors – is so dramatic that it is impossible to believe this was not the intention. It is certainly consistent with the goals of Project 2025, as summarized here by the American Public Health Association. If this seems inexplicably mean and cruel, it is. Even many GOP congresspeople and senators noted this before going ahead and voting for the bill anyway (note: voting for the bill under protest is the same as voting for the bill).

We are going to have to work very hard to try to minimize the negative impact, and it will take all those healthcare buildings and jobs working, not to make profit but to make us healthy. Good luck with that.