COVID-19 is hard and horrible and exposes existing gross inequities in our society. But don't drink the snake oil

The COVID-19 global pandemic is hard. It is just a little bit hard for those of us who can work from home or are retired, and live in lowish-incidence areas with a high outdoors/people ratio who can go for walks, and just have to worry about not going to the gym or our hair getting shaggy, or whether to try to go to the store to get things to cook or get takeout, or being able to see our children and grandchildren in faraway places. It is harder for those who live in more congested and affected areas, and really hard for those who have lost friends or family to the disease, or have had it themselves.

I read the NY Times, published at the epicenter of the US pandemic, and am torn up by the suffering of so many there. It is really hard if you are not any of the things I mentioned in the first sentence; if you have a very low-paying job and no savings and either cannot work and get paid or have to go to work because you are essential, despite the fact that no one ever told you that before – or certainly paid you as if you were. It is showing us not only which workers are essential even if very low paid, it is showing us which are absolutely not even though highly paid, like the manipulators of finance in the legal gambling casinos of Wall St. An article by a NYC subway conductor in the NY Times says “we are not essential; we are sacrificial”. It is really hard if you have pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, obesity, chronic lung disease, or all of them. Nursing home patients were the initial victims and remain the hardest hit.

It is really, really hard if all these things come together. If you are a low-wage health worker in New York, or a farmworker (documented or not) picking vegetables and fruit and living in dangerous conditions at the best of times, or a Native American on a reservation where services are meager and the virus is spreading. The two counties of Arizona including the Navajo reservation have just about 2.5% of the state’s population and 15% of its COVID-19 cases. If you are a racial or ethnic minority, whether Asian and being blamed by the President for the virus and harassed and worse by people on the streets, or Black or Latinx, and having your usual differential level of risk and harassment exacerbated, not mitigated, by the virus.

The virus has not affected countries across the world, or parts of countries, or communities equally, but the pandemic is far from over. The rates of infection are not fading; the NY Times coverage frankly says ‘The reality of the coronavirus in the U.S. is an unrelenting crush of cases and deaths.’

More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by 2 to 4 percent daily.

Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy could bring.

As New York, which has the largest burden of cases, sees plateauing and even decrease it brings down the national rate, but if NY is excluded, the rate is continuing to rise, moving more and more into the rural states and counties who have seen the least, and, despite their frequently suffering from poverty and drug addiction and unemployment, have sometimes deluded themselves into thinking this was a big-city problem.

Both the Trump administration and independent (e.g., University of Washington) sources estimate that the deaths from COVID-19 in the US will be at least double what has been previously predicted, up to 120,000. This is not coincidentally associated with the relaxation of public-health motivated controls including social distancing mandates, business closures, etc. The states that are taking the “lead” in this regressive movement are mostly in the South and Midwest, have Republican leadership, and are creating a macabre natural experiment to demonstrate how bad public policy can kill.

Despite the morbid, if accurate, predictions that come from his own administration, and that the administration has set federal guidelines for reducing restrictions based on decreasing rates of cases and deaths and increased testing, the President himself has provided a different message. He has overtly lauded the “opening” of states that have not met these criteria, visited a mask factory in Arizona without wearing a mask. and encouraged the shocking, stupid, and dangerous demonstrations by overwhelmingly white, armed men against the appropriate restrictions in states with Democratic governors such as Michigan. These folks may think that they look cool and tough, but in fact what they look like is the yahoos they are. It is impossible for me to look at a photo like this and not imagine what would happen to these demonstrators if their skin were a darker color. It doesn’t take much imagining, and it is an awful reminder of our ongoing racism that they are allowed to do this.

With all of the hard-to-terrible impact of the pandemic, it is also hard to resist the temptation to latch on to hope in the form of new magical miracle treatments, cures, tests, vaccines. It is clearly hard for the President, who enthusiastically touted the wonders of hydroxychloroquine before there was real evidence of whether it was truly beneficial – and the evidence came in overwhelmingly negative. He also, of course, has suggested the benefits of “disinfecting” the body with chemicals or UV light. These would seem as ridiculous as they in fact are, except for the folks who drank fish-tank cleaner because it had chloroquine, or ammonia or bleach, or did Tide-pod enemas. As much as I rue it, there are a large number of Americans who view his pronouncements as gospel, and act on his every suggestion.

In addition, the complexities of the science are hard for most people to understand, and the uncertainties can seem unbearable. What level of antibodies are produced by natural infection? Do they protect against reinfection? If they do, how long will this immunity last? Can their antibody-containing plasma be used to effectively treat other sufferers? We don’t know, and won’t know, until we know. That takes time.

Another recent article in the NY Times, said

Researchers and politicians in China, the United States, Germany, Britain and beyond have latched onto antibodies as a potential solution to the virus and an outlet from containment measures. But that talk, always ahead of the science, has grown more muted in recent weeks. With the research refusing to cooperate, experts in Italy say the promise of antibodies may not be what people have imagined. At least for now.

This needs to become the new mantra for essentially every medical and scientific intervention for the novel coronavirus (officially “SARS-CoV-2”). Our talk can be ahead of the science when we are expressing our hopes and desires, but we cannot allow these hopes and desires to become something we act on until we have real evidence. Too much has already been disappointing, or misstated. “Compassionate” use is sometimes advocated, but we had better be sure that our compassion does not create more problems for people than they already have. Hydroxychloroquine does, certainly drinking disinfectants does; high-dose vitamin C is water-soluble and thus may not – unless you are a stone-former; vitamin D is fat-soluble and you can overdose on it.

A moving article in the NY Times about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose district includes the hardest-hit areas of the hardest-hit city (including, with sad irony, the neighborhood of Corona in Queens), addresses the challenges of the community and the sadness it engenders in her, in her constituents, and in us. It says ‘The wreckage in her community has made a darkly eloquent case, she said, for her agenda of universal health care and less income inequity. “This crisis is not really creating new problems,” she said. “It’s pouring gasoline on our existing ones.”

She is correct. We need to move forward not following snake-oil salesmen but resolving to address the structural problems that have made this crisis worse than it had to be.