The high cost of medical education: Who should be trained to become doctors?

Medical school is expensive. College, for that matter, is expensive, but medical school is more expensive. According to a consultant website, based on data from the Association of American Medical Colleges,

On average, medical school tuition, fees, and health insurance during the 2019-2020 academic year ranges from $37,556 (public, in-state) to $62,194 (public, out-of-state). Average private school figures come in just below public schools for in-state and out-of-state students, at $60,665 and $62,111, respectively.

That is a lot of money. Per year. Multiply by 4 years. Add books, living expenses (you know, food, rent, like that), and miscellaneous other costs, and it is not surprising that the average medical student graduates a quarter-million dollars in debt.

Of course, if your family is very wealthy, it is not a problem. But given that the mean household income in 2019 was about $63,000, just about a year’s tuition in many of these schools, it would be a stretch for those families to pay such expenses. Indeed, at the 75^th%ile ($113,000) it would be more than half of gross income, and I doubt that even those at the 90^th%ile ($184,000) would find it easy to support a medical student. As medical schools (hopefully) strive for increasing diversity, by income of family of origin, race and ethnicity, and geography (rural vs. urban), this cost becomes a bigger and bigger issue, much more than when only children of the elite (including physicians) attended medical school.

Of course, these students are going to be doctors, on average the highest-paid profession in America. According to most sources, including this one based on a survey on the doctor site “Medscape”, even the lowest-income medical specialties would be easily in the top 10% of income, and several way into the 1% ($475K). (Indeed, the income for those highest-paid specialties seems to be lower than those I have known, who not uncommonly make over $1M.) But even using those numbers, there is a several-fold difference in being in, say, Pediatrics ($212K) or Family Medicine ($219K), and Orthopedics or Plastic Surgery ($500K). It is certainly understandable that, at such high debt loads, the greater income of a high-paid specialty seems more attractive, and may further decrease student choice of primary care (lower paid) specialties. (At a difference of almost $300K a year, a plastic surgeon could expect, over a 30 year career, to earn almost $9M more than a pediatrician! That is real money!)

In addition to their own cost of living, often having to help support, rather than be supported by, a family, is another reality for those who are in medical school and later in residency training. This is a major focus of an important NY Times article on the topic published November 26, 2019, “I have a PhD in not having money”, about the challenges that low-income medical students have, and by extension the challenges for medical schools that really might wish to have a diverse class. The challenge is not only for minority students, who on average come from families with significantly less wealth and income, but across-the-board for students from families with incomes that are not in the higher ranges. It includes most students from rural areas.

In fact, there is an enormously close correlation between students from areas and population groups which are most needed in medicine and those most poorly represented in medical school. In some ways this is a tautology; since doctors are likely to practice in communities like those in which they grew up, poor, minority, and rural communities which are dramatically underrepresented in medical school are the least served. Also, the higher income earned by subspecialists (and, let us not forget, the explicit and implicit encouragement by faculty for students to enter these fields) means that they can practice only in “major medical centers”, places with populations big enough to support a need for that specialty and with hospitals that can provide them a place to practice. Thus, fewer medical students train to be family doctors, who can practice in and are much needed in rural areas, exacerbating the existing reticence of students brought up in cities and suburbs to relocate there.

The Times article is good, but it focuses almost entirely on the issue of paying for medical school. Clearly this is incredibly important. The students featured in it say things like “You have to decide, do you use your loans for a study aid or for a rainy-day fund in case someone at home gets sick?...I haven’t had dental insurance in two years. When tuna is on sale for 80 cents a can, I go buy 30 at CVS,” and “There’s this idea that because we’ll all be doctors one day, the loans don’t matter and it’ll all even out. But that doesn’t account for day-to-day expenses now, like if my mom texts me asking for help.” This begins to get at the larger issues, that it is not only the question of how to pay for medical school, but a variety of related things that characterize students from lower-income backgrounds.

Students from poor families tend to live in poor neighborhoods. Because of the US’ regressive system of financing public education, which depends a great deal on local funds, the quality of the education is likely to not be as good. I refer not to the skill or dedication of the teachers, but the resources to provide additional instruction, instructional support, and special classes such as Advanced Placement. Similar conditions apply in rural areas. Where the student from an upper-middle-class suburb may have many advanced placement classes, especially in sciences, by the time they graduate from high school, and have learned disciplined study habits and been given lots of role models, students from less-well-off school districts are much less likely to have. In a rural area, there may be one science teacher who is shared by more than one district. This gives the more privileged students a leg up before they even start college. Before they start high school. Before they start school altogether.

Then, disadvantaged students have to compete on academic criteria with those from wealthier backgrounds on Medical College Admissions Tests (MCATs), a type of test for which those others have been prepping for years. Medical school faculty on admissions committees often can’t – or don’t care to -- distinguish between the ability to perform well academically and the potential for becoming a good doctor if given the right support. A child of a well-to-do family who has had not only excellent schools but tutors and other support when needed, and who looks like the children of the MD and PhD faculty, might be “hitting on all cylinders” to do as well as they are, while the child of a farm worker or motel cleaner in a rural area may have unlimited untapped potential.

And, yet, it is still more. Producing more doctors from the top income levels means that the communities like those they come from, which already have enough or more than enough physicians, will become more overserved; that the specialties that exist in abundance in those locations will have more members. And lower income communities, rural communities, minority communities, communities that need primary care doctors, will remain underserved. And the health of the US population will be further jeopardized.

Some schools, like Mount Sinai in New York, have eliminated tuition. That is a good thing for the students who are admitted, especially for those who are from low-income families, but it does not explicitly choose students from low-income families. That is a major flaw; it mostly serves to further advantage the most-highly-advantaged students who comprise the bulk of the class. To care for the American people, medical schools need to admit and train physicians who “look like America”, for real, not a few token students in a class mostly comprised of scions of the top 25% or even 10%. This means that the first pass for admission should be demographic – students who come from low-income, from rural, from minority communities, students who don’t look like most current students, students who don’t look like the children of medical school faculty and their neighbors. If there are to be some slots reserved for those who are from privileged backgrounds and overserved communities, they should be for those who are most likely to practice in areas and specialties unlike those in which they were raised, those who have a demonstrated history (not an essay expressing intent) of real service. Were they in the Peace Corps, or AmeriCorps, or Teach for America, or something that actually required extended work and sacrifice?

Those students who are admitted will need maximal financial help, scholarships as much as loans, and even more educational support, so that they can reach their full potential and be able to become the doctors who can help their communities if they choose to return (not all will but they are much more likely to than others). That is what medical school funds should be spent for.

And we need it to start soon. It will be 30 years before currently accepted medical students replace the existing doctors, and we shouldn’t have half-measures.

The social mission of medical education: Admit different students

In his JAMA “Viewpoint” article, “Social Mission in Health Professions Education: Beyond Flexner”,[1] June 17, 2017, Fitzhugh Mullan makes a convincing case for medical schools to be committed to their social mission. He takes his definition from the “Beyond Flexner” website (www.beyondflexner.org), which says “Social mission is about making health not only better but fairer—more just, reliable, and universal”. He details what this means in terms of commitment to reducing health disparities, increasing access to healthcare in both rural and urban underserved communities, increasing diversity within the health professions. These serious issues have been identified for decades, but in fact the trend may be toward getting worse instead of better.

Mullan cites some examples of medical schools, primarily newer and “community based” schools, that are working toward these goals. These include Morehouse and Mercer (founded in an earlier wave of medical school expansion in 1975 and 1982 respectively), those of a more recent expansion in the 2000s (Florida International University and the AT Still Mesa Campus), and those yet to come (the merger of Geisinger Health System and Commonwealth University, Kaiser Permanente School). But he also talks about “mainstreaming”, the need for consciousness about, and implementation of, social mission to be a characteristic of all medical schools.

I believe that the most important measures of a health professions school’s social mission are its outputs. Using the 3 criteria identified by Mullan and colleagues in their seminal 2010 Annals of Internal Medicine article “The social mission of medical education: ranking the schools”,[2] we need to look at whether its graduates are more diverse, whether they practice in underserved areas, and whether they are more likely to be in primary care specialties. The 2010 article showed that some schools do better -- more often those that are public, newer, and not in the Northeast -- but the fact is that none is doing all that well.

The number of students entering primary care is a critical indicator because, based on national and international comparisons, a well-functioning health system should have 40-50% of physicians should be in primary care; the US is well below 30% and going down. Family medicine match rates are the most sensitive indicators of primary care production, because unlike internal medicine virtually all family physicians practice primary care, so a choice of this specialty means a commitment to primary care. In addition, it is the specialty most suited for practice in rural areas. Even if all schools consistently produced 50% primary care physicians, it would take at least a generation to get to that number for all physicians in practice, and we are far, far from this.

In 2012 John Delzell and I looked at 10 years of data (2002-2011) published annually on the family medicine match by the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) documenting the number and percent of students from each medical school entering family medicine.[3] We found only a few schools that were relatively high in both number and percent, with the University of Minnesota and the University of Kansas far ahead of the rest. And yet even those schools do not produce primary care physicians at the 50% rate. In the most recent AAFP report, on 2015 graduates,[4] even the “socially conscious” schools cited by Mullan did not have very high numbers matching in family medicine:  Morehouse 8 (12.9%), Mercer 13 (13.8%), FIU 4 (5%). Minnesota, at 42 (18.2%) had the largest number in the nation, but still had 20 fewer than it did in 1999! In 1994, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) announced Project 3000 by 2000, aiming for 3000 minority medical students into US schools by the year 2000[5]. It failed. Today, in 2016-17, we are not only far from that number, but the percent of many minorities (especially African-American men) continues to drop.[6]

As in any process, the results of medical (and all health professions) education are affected by 3 sets of variables. Input variables are the students enrolled, process variables include the curriculum and overall experience of students during their education, and output variables are the expectations of what the income and life experience of a graduate is likely to be. While the last is probably the most important determinant, especially given the degree of debt with which students are graduating and the fact that many specialists can earn 2-3 (or more) times as much as a primary care physician, it is also the area that schools have the least ability to influence. As Mullan and colleagues have emphasized, medical schools can influence the process variables, including the school’s vision and mission, the teaching of social mission, determinants of health, disparities, and other areas in their classrooms and clinics, experiences for students to serve such as free clinics, and mentoring and role modeling by faculty. However, making these changes seem to be insufficient to overcome the negative influence of the output variables in terms of students choosing primary care and practice in underserved areas. At least for most of the students currently in medical school.

Which brings us to the input variable: who is admitted? Clearly, from the data cited above, medical schools are not taking appreciable numbers of students from underrepresented minority groups, from rural areas, or from lower socioeconomic groups, at least not in anything close to the proportion in the population. They take, on the whole, white (and Asian) students from well-to-do suburbs of large cities who, not coincidentally, went to the “best” public and private schools and have the highest grades and Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT) scores. The problem for the health of the American people is that the strongest predictor of where a medical student will practice is where they come from; minority students are far more likely to practice in minority neighborhoods, rural students are far more likely to practice in rural areas, and white upper middle class students from the suburbs are more likely to practice in the suburbs. These are the areas that already have enough physicians (and sometimes too many). In a real sense, a physician who enters practice in a non-underserved area in a non-shortage specialty is contributing little marginal benefit to the health of the American people. The imbalance of physicians practicing in health professions shortage areas (HPSAs) vs other areas is demonstrated in the attached table from Zhang, et al.[7]

Yes, our society must urgently address the “output variables” to ensure that students who choose primary care can earn a reasonable proportion of what other specialists do (some studies indicate that 70% of mean specialist income would be sufficient to eliminate that as a reason for not choosing primary care). Indeed, medical schools need to address the “process variables” by having explicit curricula on health disparities, social determinants of health, and community and preventive health, and ensure there is not a “hidden curriculum” mitigating against primary care. But they also urgently need to ensure that most of their admissions, not a token number, are students whose characteristics mean they are more likely to meet America’s healthcare needs. These include demographic characteristics, such as rural or minority origin and lower socioeconomic status of their family, and individual characteristics identified by past performance (not sentiments in an essay). This is primarily significant volunteer service, especially major commitments like the Peace Corps, Americorps, Teach for America, etc.

And, most importantly, these changes and programs must happen at all medical schools and for the bulk of the classes. The time for experiments and pilot programs is done. These efforts must be scaled up, to be, in Mullan’s word, “mainstreamed”. And now is not too soon.

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[1] Mullan, F, Social Mission in Health Professions Education: Beyond Flexner, JAMA published online June 26, 2017. doi:10.1001/jama.2017.7286

[2] Mullan  F, Chen  C, Petterson  S, Kolsky  G, Spagnola  M.  The social mission of medical education: ranking the schools.  Ann Intern Med. 2010;152(12):804-811

[3]  Freeman J, Delzell J, Medical School Graduates Entering Family Medicine: Increasing the Overall Number, Fam Med 2012;44(9):613-4.

[4] Kozakowski S, Travis A, Bentley A, Fetter G, Entry of US Medical School Graduates Into Family Medicine Residencies: 2015–2016, Fam Med 2016;48(9):688-95, (online Table A).

[5] Nickens HW, Ready TP, Petersdorf RG, Project 3000 by 2000 -- Racial and Ethnic Diversity in U.S. Medical School, N Engl J Med 1994; 331:472-476August 18, 1994DOI: 10.1056/NEJM199408183310712

[6] https://www.aamc.org/data/facts/

[7] Zhang X, Phillips RL, Bazemore AW, Dodoo MS, Petterson SM, Xierall I, Green LA, Physician Distribution and Access: Workforce Priorities, Am Fam Physician. 2008 May 15;77(10):1378.